The Daily Planet #110: The China Shock, Part 11

It's clear that renewables will not lead to a common human goal of addressing climate change; in fact, renewables might be a better hedge against foreign sources of energy than for climate action. In this world, China is both a supplier of energy technologies and an adversary worth hedging against.

Energy has long been a powerful tool in global politics, used by countries to influence others by controlling oil, gas, or electricity supplies. Historically, events like the UK's oil blockade in World War I and the 1973 Arab oil embargo showed how cutting off energy could cause major economic and political damage. For many years after the Cold War, energy cooperation and global market integration helped reduce such risks, making energy weaponization less common.

However, this era of stability is ending. Renewed competition among great powers like Russia, China, and the United States, along with economic fragmentation, is bringing back the use of energy as a coercive tool. Russia's recent gas supply cuts to Europe and China's restrictions on critical minerals highlight how energy and related resources are being used to exert political pressure. At the same time, the rise of clean energy technologies, dominated by countries like China, introduces new vulnerabilities, especially since many critical minerals and components for solar panels, batteries, and wind turbines come from a few suppliers.

To protect themselves, countries need to reduce dependence on volatile energy supplies, increase energy efficiency, and invest in domestic clean energy production. Diversifying supply chains and strengthening infrastructure against cyberattacks and physical disruptions are also crucial. While some may seek energy independence, true security comes from using less energy and shifting to zero-carbon sources.

Governments are becoming more involved in energy markets, balancing the need for security with economic costs. This shift may accelerate the clean energy transition, driven not only by climate concerns but also by the desire to avoid energy coercion. Ultimately, the return of the energy weapon presents challenges but also offers an opportunity to build a more resilient, sustainable, and secure energy future.

The Return of the Energy Weapon